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That's also assuming that everybody is play Mayhem in a 50(?) card deck.

Actually I think the person doing that math was assuming that about half the players had Mayhem in a 50 (or maybe 56) card deck).

Where's the 25% coming from?  I assumed a 19.8% chance (RDT crunched the numbers, I seem to remember that).

Where's the 25% coming from?  I assumed a 19.8% chance

I didn't do the math myself, but perhaps the difference is that the 25% chance was of having AT LEAST 6 FTM out of 10 rounds.  So a person could have 7, 8, 9, or 10, (although those would be smaller percentages) and that would still give them AT LEAST 6 FTM.  So perhaps you forgot to add in those smaller percentages?

Just an idea.

Ah, we were working from different angles of the problem.  I just was working with the probability of one player, six only.

I'm not much for stats but shouldn't the prob be about .198^6? (for a single person)

Not in this case.  That's basically what I did the first time around, but Bernoulli's formula is more appropriate.

Can you explain why? I am not much of a stats guy, like I said.

Sounds good. I'm not really into learning about math, but this seemed like a straightforward problem, so I figured I'd ask.

With all this math questions, why don't you just ask YMT